The European center doesn't build observational systems while NOAA does. The European center has one budget that focuses only on research and development relating to medium-range weather, while NOAA has a fragmented budget and multiple research and development projects "loosely" managed under multiple organizations. The European model focuses on medium-range weather prediction, while the American model does a lot more - it looks at short-, medium- and long-range global weather, along with atmospheric, ocean, coastal, hurricane and space weather. ![]() There are other reasons why the European model has outperformed the American model, many of them having to do with the structure of the two agencies that run each computer, according to NOAA: If there is a threat to safety and property and people, it is far more related to the state of the observing system than it is to any deficiencies or any gap we might have with the Europeans on the predictive model." For the most part, we all start from the same observations. "If they fail to continue to deliver the observations, then our forecast is going to be less good," he said "We all use the same set of raw data. Rood said that the meteorologists who run the European computer have invested time, effort and money into developing algorithms.Īnother issue, he said, is the long-term maintenance of the satellites run by NASA and NOAA. There are many other aspects that need to be addressed," said Richard Rood, a professor at the University of Michigan's department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Science. "If you just bought a bigger computer, it will help but it will not solve the problem. "Having better forecast models is going to improve your chances."Įxperts also say the quality of a nation's computer capability is emblematic of its underlying commitment to research, science and innovation. ![]() ![]() "You want to have the best information possible when you're trying to decide what to do," Masters said. In the long run, improving its computing power will increase the overall quality of data for scientists drawing from multiple sources. The fact that the American supercomputer is lacking in processing power does need to be addressed. The computers take data from weather satellites, observations and weather balloons, then plug the data into complex algorithms. "It's immaterial to us."Īnd forecasters say that hurricane modeling and forecasting has become more accurate overall in the last 10 years.įorecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami use both American and European models - and other models - then average them together for a storm's projected path. "I really could care less which is the better model because we have access to them both," said James Franklin, branch chief of the hurricane specialist unit. Still, with hurricane season starting Saturday, forecasters say the average person living in a coastal area shouldn't worry about the capability gap between the computers. "The money we spend on weather forecasts and improving them pays for itself." did invest more money and people into making the model better, then the forecast would be better," Masters said. Jeff Masters, meteorology director at the online forecasting service Weather Underground, said that other than Hurricane Sandy, the American model outperformed the European model during the 2012 hurricane season - but if you look at a three-year period, the European model still comes out on top. The European model is able to pick up on those storms earlier than our model." ![]() "Certainly one area of concern that has received some attention were these larger high-impact extreme weather events. "This will improve weather forecasting across the board," said Christopher Vaccaro, a spokesman for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
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